A Different Approach to Addressing Housing Affordability is Required in Virginia

At Issue and News,

New data from the Supreme Court of Virginia tells a positive story about eviction rates in the Commonwealth, contradicting a popular narrative. 
 
In a report from the Office of the Executive Secretary (OES), it was revealed that 22,177 evictions were executed in Virginia between July 1, 2023, and June 30, 2024.   This represents an eviction rate of less than 1%. 
 
Prior to the release of this report, the only available data regarding evictions came from Eviction Lab.  However, this source captured only unlawful detainer filings – the beginning of the legal process - greatly skewing perceptions of the prevalence of evictions in Virginia. Compiling unlawful detainer filings in a dataset means cases that do not result in an actual eviction, which are the vast majority of cases, are used to draw conclusions, including cases where rent is simply paid later than five days past due. Indeed, the Supreme Court’s figures add valuable context to the overall picture, showing that roughly 4 out of 5 filings did not result in an eviction. 

The Virginia General Assembly has placed a heavy focus on landlord/tenant law and eviction prevention, passing over 60 related bills in the last five years alone.  The bulk of this legislation has passed with the support of the rental housing industry, which has taken a proactive approach to codifying industry best practices and directing assistance to residents to keep them safely housed. 

But, this new data shows that a change of focus on housing policy may be in order.  While Virginia has done a laudable job on evictions and expanding tenant rights and resources, housing affordability challenges persist.
 
The Department of Housing and Community Development (DHCD) estimates that Virginia is currently 550,000 units short of meeting current housing demand and needs to build another 30,000 units per year to match the state’s growth.  The Joint Legislative Audit & Review Commission (JLARC) adds that the Commonwealth’s shortage of affordable housing units is at around 200,000 units. 
 
Of the 60+ bills passed by the legislature in the last five years, not one has contributed to the development of any new supply. 
 
At the same time, initiatives to provide a safety net to struggling Virginia renters have largely encompassed short-term or one-time financial assistance.  Yet, according to Eviction Lab, 98% of evictions are the result of a persistent income shock.  This means that the population of Virginians for whom short-term assistance will be effective in helping them get back on their feet is extremely small – approximately 444 in the last year. 
 
To address the root cause of our housing challenges, we must focus our attention and resources on the supply deficiency driving our housing affordability crisis and the individual outcomes attributable thereto.  Virginia has done well to increase funding to its Housing Trust Fund in recent years.  But, years of neglect have resulted in heightened need and much more remains to be done.  In addition to making funding available for the Housing Trust Fund and creating incentives for new housing development, initiatives like the 5,000 Families program would build out the essential safety net for the 242,000 Virginians who fall into the category of severely housing cost-burdened and require longer-term assistance to remain sustainably housed.  


Along with input provided by AOBA member companies, the following data sources and references were used in compiling the attached report: